FIRE
The Trinity Study (1998) analysed historical portfolio withdrawal rates and gave rise to the popular 4% rule.
The Trinity Study, published in 1998, is one of the most influential pieces of research on how much can be sustainably withdrawn from a portfolio in retirement. It analysed historical withdrawal rates across different time periods and portfolio mixes.
From its findings came the popular 4% rule: the notion that an annual withdrawal of roughly this size has historically been sustainable over long periods without exhausting the capital.
As well known as the study is, the caveats matter just as much: its conclusions rest on historical market data and particular assumptions. They describe what would have been sustainable in the past and are no guarantee for the future. For your own planning, adjustments for duration, costs and personal circumstances are sensible.
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