Planning financial independence under the German tax burden
FIRE is not a number but a question: how much wealth can carry a life in which work becomes a choice rather than an obligation? The movement comes from the United States, and with it a catchy rule of thumb, 25 times annual spending, a four percent withdrawal. In Germany that rule holds only in part. Tax, a longer time horizon and health insurance shift the arithmetic quietly, but perceptibly.
This guide sorts the building blocks. It is no substitute for advice, and it promises no certainty that long horizons cannot give. It describes what can be drawn from the available data, and leaves the decision to you.
Financial independence is less a goal than a state in which the portfolio carries the spending, not the next paycheck.
FIRE stands for “Financial Independence, Retire Early.” The core is plain: anyone who builds wealth large enough to cover ongoing spending permanently from its returns and a measured withdrawal is no longer dependent on paid work. Whether you then stop working entirely, work less, or work differently is a personal question, not a financial one.
The intellectual foundation comes from two works. William Bengen published the original four percent study in the Journal of Financial Planning in 1994: drawing on US market data from 1926, a portfolio of the S&P 500 and intermediate-term US government bonds and a minimum horizon of 30 years, an investor withdrew four percent of the portfolio in the first year and then held that euro amount constant in real, that is inflation-adjusted, terms. The Trinity Study of 1998 (Cooley, Hubbard and Walz, Trinity University) tested this idea systematically over US data from 1926 to 1995, for horizons of 15, 20, 25 and 30 years and various stock-bond mixes.
The result that shaped the movement: a stock-heavy portfolio historically survived a four percent withdrawal over 30 years almost always, on the order of around 95 percent of the windows examined. From this the famous rule of 25 derives, since 25 is simply the reciprocal of four percent (1 / 0.04).
The Trinity Study is a historical backward look at the US market, not a guarantee and not a worldwide law of nature. It models neither tax nor fund costs. Bengen himself named around three percent, rather than four, as “absolutely safe” for horizons of 50 years and more. For German investors that is the more important figure.
FIRE is not a single programme but a family of life designs. They differ above all in the assumed level of spending and in the question of whether you are still paying in or already drawing down. The terms below come from the community, not from the law; they are planning pictures, not legal forms.
| Variant | Distinguishing feature | Rough rule of thumb |
|---|---|---|
| Regular | Full exit on a normal budget | around 29× to 33× (US rule of thumb 25×) |
| Lean | Deliberately minimal budget, earlier exit | smaller target sum, but little buffer |
| Fat | Generous budget, high standard of living | markedly higher target sum |
| Coast | Enough saved that compounding alone reaches the classic retirement age; contributions stop | the target is no longer actively topped up |
| Barista |
The name “Barista” comes from the United States, where a part-time job, in a café for instance, granted access to the employer’s health insurance. In Germany the logic shifts: here the real lever of Barista-FIRE lies in staying within the cheaper Pflichtversicherung (mandatory statutory health insurance) through employment subject to social-security contributions, and topping up income, rather than insuring oneself expensively on a voluntary basis. More on that below.
The basic formula is simple: the FIRE number is the multiple of your annual spending needed to cover it permanently from the portfolio. The multiple is the reciprocal of the chosen withdrawal rate. At four percent that gives 25, at 3.5 percent around 29, at three percent around 33.
FIRE number
FIRE number = annual spending ÷ safe withdrawal rate
For German investors the four percent rule is more of an upper bound than a planning anchor. Three mutually independent factors pull the historically sustainable rate downward, and they add up:
Kernaussagen
The multiples given are a planning heuristic calibrated to history, not a promise. Sequence-of-returns risk means that any fixed rate can fail if the first years after the exit go badly. A lower rate buys a margin of safety, not a guarantee.
Here lies the most commonly misunderstood detail. Anyone who withdraws four percent and then deducts a flat 26.375 percent tax from it overstates the burden considerably. The reason: only the gain contained in the units sold is taxed, never the capital being returned (§ 20 Abs. 4 EStG).
The Abgeltungsteuer is 26.375 percent, made up of 25 percent Kapitalertragsteuer (German capital-gains tax) (§ 32d EStG) and a 5.5 percent Solidaritätszuschlag (German solidarity surcharge) on top of it. With Kirchensteuer (German church tax) (eight or nine percent) it runs a little higher. With equity funds the Teilfreistellung (German partial exemption for fund income) applies first: 30 percent of the returns stay tax-free for private investors (§ 20 InvStG), so the effective rate on equity-fund gains falls to 26.375 percent × 0.70 = 18.4625 percent. In addition, everyone is entitled to the Sparerpauschbetrag (German saver’s lump-sum allowance) of EUR 1,000, EUR 2,000 for married couples (§ 20 Abs. 9 EStG).
A deterministic worked example, illustrative and not a forecast, for a single investor with a pure equity ETF and no church tax:
Example withdrawal year (EUR 1,000,000 portfolio, 4 % withdrawal)
Withdrawal = EUR 40,000 · contained gain (50 %) = EUR 20,000 × 0.70 Teilfreistellung = EUR 14,000 − EUR 1,000 Sparerpauschbetrag = EUR 13,000 taxable × 26.375 % = EUR 3,428.75 tax
The tax of EUR 3,428.75 amounts to around 8.57 percent of the withdrawal, not the supposed 26.375 percent. Translated to the portfolio that is about 0.34 percentage points of tax drag, so the net withdrawal in this example (50 percent gain share) sits at around 3.66 percent rather than four percent, and rises over the years with the FIFO gain share. The order matters: first the Teilfreistellung, then the Sparerpauschbetrag.
| View | Tax deducted on EUR 40,000 | Effective burden |
|---|---|---|
| Naive calculation (26.375 % on everything) | EUR 10,550 | overstates for this example by around 3× |
| Correct: gain only, after Teilfreistellung and allowance | EUR 3,428.75 | around 8.57 % of the withdrawal |
Two caveats belong with this. First, the overstatement of the naive calculation is not constant: the FIFO rule (§ 20 Abs. 4 S. 7 EStG) requires that, per securities account, the oldest units are sold first. Over the decades the contained gain share thus rises, and the assumed 50 percent value is a snapshot, smaller early on, larger later. Second, this is a purely tax-side view. Before retirement age the larger item is usually health insurance.
Anyone who exits early and is neither employed nor covered through the Familienversicherung (German family co-insurance) or the Krankenversicherung der Rentner (German statutory health insurance for pensioners) lands in voluntary statutory health insurance. Its contributions are assessed, under § 240 SGB V, on total income, including capital income and rental income. That is precisely what makes it so expensive for FIRE: health and care contributions then fall on capital income in addition to the Abgeltungsteuer, up to the contribution assessment ceiling.
The relevant values for 2026:
| Figure (2026) | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| General contribution rate | 14.6 % (reduced 14.0 %) | health insurance, before supplement |
| Average supplementary contribution | 2.9 % | depends on the fund |
| Care insurance | 3.6 % (childless +0.6 %) | on the same assessment base |
| Minimum assessment base | EUR 1,318.33 / month | floor even on little income |
| Minimum contribution (health + care) | around EUR 270 to 286 / month | applies even at near-zero income |
In sum, capital and rental income in voluntary statutory health insurance are charged at around 20.5 to 21.1 percent (health plus supplementary plus care contribution), capped at the top by the contribution assessment ceiling. Even on low income the minimum contribution of around EUR 270 to 286 a month remains.
Three routes lessen this burden:
The Krankenversicherung der Rentner (KVdR) is cheap, but applies only from the start of the pension and after the pre-insurance period is met (nine tenths of the second half of working life). It does not cover the gap before that.
FIRE-Zahl (nach Steuern)
EUR 689.051,26≈ 16.58 Jahre
Simulated · 7% p.a. assumed · not a return forecast
Open full calculator →Coast FIRE turns the logic around. Instead of saving the full target sum and then withdrawing, you save only enough that compounding alone reaches the FIRE number by the classic retirement age. Once the “coast number” is reached, you can drop the savings rate to zero and let what you have paid in do the work, while ongoing income only covers living costs.
Coast number (present value of the FIRE number)
Coast number = FIRE number ÷ (1 + r)^n
The goal is reached as soon as the current portfolio × (1 + r)^n is greater than or equal to the FIRE number. Here r is the assumed real return per year and n the number of years remaining. The appeal of Coast FIRE is as much psychological as financial: the pressure to muster a high savings rate every month falls away early.
The coast number reacts extremely sensitively to the assumed real return r. Even one percentage point less over 25 years shifts the result considerably. Long-term global equity returns historically ran at around five percent real per year (Dimson-Marsh-Staunton, Kommer); for forward planning, four to five percent real is a more cautious assumption. These are assumptions, not commitments.
An owner-occupied property affects the FIRE number not through return but through the spending side. Anyone living rent-free has lower ongoing spending, and since the FIRE number is a multiple of precisely that spending, the portfolio required falls accordingly. At a withdrawal rate of 3.5 percent, an annual rent of EUR 14,000 that falls away lowers the FIRE number, on the arithmetic alone, by around 29 times, that is roughly EUR 400,000. This is a model view, not a promise.
Set against this are real burdens that are easily lost in the enthusiasm. Capital tied up in the home is not available to the portfolio and produces no withdrawable returns. Maintenance, Grundsteuer (German property tax) and insurance cause ongoing costs that erode the rent saving. And a home is hardly liquid: it cannot be sold in small tranches when the portfolio is to be spared in a weak year.
Whether an owner-occupied property carries a FIRE plan depends on the relationship between the housing cost saved, the capital tied up and the ongoing burdens. Both sides can be argued: rent-free living as a stable anchor, equally the locking-up of capital as a brake. There is no blanket answer.
The points below are general planning questions, not a recommendation for your personal situation.
All worked examples in this article are illustrative and not a forecast. The text explains general principles and is not individual tax or investment advice. Tax values and social-security figures apply to 2026 and may change.
Your FIRE number, against your real portfolio
In Investboard you see withdrawal, tax and allocation for your entire wealth in one place, described, not promised.
View your FIRE plan in Investboard →| Partial wealth plus ongoing supplementary part-time work |
| the portfolio covers only part of the spending |
| Contribution assessment ceiling |
| EUR 5,812.50 / month (EUR 69,750 / year) |
| above this, contribution-free |